No. 19 Air Force (7-0, 4-0 Mountain West) vs. CSU Rams (3-4, 1-2)
When/where: Saturday, 5 p.m. MT/Canvas Stadium
TV/Radio: CBSSN/1600 AM, 104.3 HD2
BetMGM Line: Air Force -12, 49.5 over/under
Weather: Chance of snow flurries and temperature around 29 degrees at kickoff.
Five storylines
The Falcons’ Mission: Air Force is cruising toward its fourth straight 10-win season (not counting the shortened 2020 COVID year), and with QB Zac Larrier at the helm, an undefeated regular season and major bowl berth could also be in the cards. Larrier hurt his knee in the win over Wyoming two weeks ago, but returned to play against Navy the next week. He tossed a 94-yard TD pass, the longest in school history, to put Air Force up in the first half en route to a 17-6 win.
The Rams’ Response: CSU let its second would-be win slip through its fingers in a brutal last-second loss last week at UNLV. The Rams took a 23-22 lead with 48 seconds left, but their secondary let them down again, just as the unit did in the Rocky Mountain Showdown defeat when Shedeur Sanders & Co. passed down the field en route to the game-tying TD at the end of regulation. If the underdog Rams find themselves in a close game again, can the defense finish the job?
The Noyes Factor: Rams kicker Jordon Noyes drilled a career-high 55-yarder with under a minute left last week, briefly giving the Rams the lead. Jay Norvell has been big on the Utah transfer’s leg since training camp, and now we can see why: He’s 7 for 9 on field goals this year, including zero misses under 30 yards, and has converted all 21 extra point attempts. Consistency in the kicking game will be key for CSU in potentially harsh conditions Saturday, and down the stretch if they want to make a run at bowl eligibility.
Air Force’s Ground Game: Norvell & Co. can study up on the Falcons’ triple-option attack all they want. Stopping it is a different matter altogether. Air Force has already racked up 2,221 yards on the ground this year at a whopping 5.3 yards per carry. Between Larrier, fullback Emmanuel Michel and tailbacks John Lee Eldridge III and Owen Burk, it’s a pick-your-poison offense. CSU has been gashed by the AFA triple-option in their past two meetings, giving up an average of 373.5 rush yards/game. The Rams have to play strict assignment football, or it could get ugly.
Series History: Air Force leads the all-time series, 38-21-1, and also holds a 27-15 advantage since the Ram-Falcon Trophy was created in 1980. The Falcons have ripped off six straight wins, with CSU’s last victory coming in Fort Collins in 2015.
Predictions
Kyle Newman, sportswriter: Air Force 35, CSU 21
The Rams simply aren’t disciplined enough to beat this military team. The Falcons run for over 350 yards, including several large bursts off the triple-option, while Rams QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi has some bright spots but also throws a game-changing interception.
Sean Keeler, sports columnist: Air Force 37, CSU 20
The football gods giveth, the football gods taketh away. The last thing you want after a soul-crushing (and winnable) loss at UNLV is the two best teams in the league back-to-back, but here we are. Jay Norvell teams have hung with good Air Force offenses in the past, but this might be Troy Calhoun’s best bunch yet. The Zoomies are on a mission. The Rammies are in the way.
Matt Schubert, sports editor: Air Force 27, CSU 17
The Zoomies have run all over the Rams in their last two meetings, and that’s unlikely to change Saturday. Even more distressing for CSU? The Air Force defense may be among the best in the country. Not a great recipe for the Rammies, especially in snowy FoCo.
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