Denver Post Broncos writer Parker Gabriel posts his Broncos Mailbag weekly during the season and periodically during the offseason. Click here to submit a question.
Hey Parker, that was one of the wildest endings to a game I’ve ever seen. It feels strange to be on this end of one after the last few seasons. My question is in regard to the Broncos’ inability to capitalize on offense. We spent a lot of time chastising Vance Joseph earlier in the season (and with good reason), but it seems like Sean Payton and Joe Lombardi have gotten off scot-free with the offense. The defense gave us so many opportunities, but we only found the end zone twice. That should’ve been a lopsided victory if we could only get the ball moving. What do you think?
— Wallace G., Brighton
Yo Wallace, thanks for writing in and getting us going. It was indeed a wild ending to Monday night’s win at Buffalo. And you’re spot on about the Broncos’ inability to capitalize. Payton even mentioned it after the game, saying he kept looking at the scoreboard and thinking they should have been leading by much more — or leading at all late in the game — when they were plus-three in the turnover department.
Don’t fully agree that they’re getting off without any criticism. It’s been there, but winning three straight obviously softens the blow some. The reality in recent weeks has been that the defense and special teams have picked up the offense more than the other way around. Of course, it’s all good if you’re winning games. If Buffalo had 11 guys on the field when Wil Lutz’s first attempt at a game-winner slid right, the immediate questions would have been about that sequence. But very quickly attention would have shifted to scoring just six points off four Bills turnovers. One thing that’s clear: Denver’s offense has to do a better job of making those situations count, because even if the defense keeps playing well, it’s not going to generate four takeaways every week.
A couple of key numbers for the Broncos offense: By Sumer Sports’ EPA/play, the group is No. 16 overall. They’re tied for 15th in scoring (21.8 per game), tied for 14th in yards per play (5.2) and No. 23 in yards per game (301.9). They’re tied for fifth in yards per carry (4.6), but not quite as good on a per-game basis (12th at 117.3). Russell Wilson’s done a good job not turning the ball over and has a terrific 18-to-4 touchdown-to-interception mark, but the Broncos are No. 20 in turnover rate, No. 28 in passing yards per game (184.6) and aren’t particularly good at generating first downs (No. 23).
Regardless of how you slice it, there’s plenty of room for the offense to improve.
Where’s Marvin Mims been in the offense? He looked like he was gonna be a deep target for us after the first few weeks. But he’s disappeared. Four touches on offense in the last five games. Is he in the dog house or is Sean Payton just relying on him purely as a returner now?
— Mike, Denver
Yeah, Mike, Mims’ offensive usage has been tough to figure this year. He got off to such a hot start, but defenses quickly learned they had to account for him down the field. Over the past five games, he’s got two catches for four yards (four targets) and two carries for minus-14.
He’s not in the dog house, though. He’s already become one of the best return men in the game. Not only that, but here’s an interesting number to watch going forward: Mims against Buffalo was on the field for a career-high 52 snaps, or 69% of Denver’s offensive plays. He hadn’t played more than 28% or 39% (both Week 8 vs. Kansas City) previously. Not only that, but 52 against Buffalo slotted him slightly ahead of Jerry Jeudy (49) and behind only Courtland Sutton (65) among receivers. We didn’t see a ton of big role changes for the Broncos coming out of their bye week, but one key clearly was to get Mims on the field as if he’s one of Denver’s top receivers.
Now moving forward the question will be about whether the production rises with the playing time. The bet here is yes.
Ja’Quan McMillian’s got that dawg in him! Loving how this D is finally coming together. Getting rid of Randy Gregory, demoting Damarri Mathis and losing Kareem Jackson gave us that boost. Do you think when Kareem returns he’ll mess with the chemistry?
— Ty W., Thornton
Hey Ty, thanks for writing in! Totally agree with you on the first two, but I’m not sure that losing Jackson for two games fits in with the other two moves you listed. Releasing Frank Clark? Sure. But Jackson’s absence hasn’t been a big plus. Now, he’s got to avoid the same kind of costly penalties he racked up, but the Broncos will benefit from having his knowledge and veteran presence back in the locker room, too. Really, it’s a testament to P.J. Locke’s ability that he stepped in and played starting-quality football against Kansas City and Buffalo while Jackson was out.
There’s another reason Jackson’s return might actually be really important: Locke missed the final 34 snaps against the Bills because of a left ankle injury. We’ll know more about his status as the week goes along, but the Broncos would certainly benefit from having Jackson back if Locke misses any time. What will be interesting is how the snaps shake out if and when Locke and Jackson are both available. Here’s what Payton said about that on Tuesday: “We’ll sort through how we’re going to implement Kareem in the plan. Certainly we view him as a starter, veteran player. He’s smart. He’s extremely smart.”
OK, Parker, half the season’s over: Who’s making the Pro Bowl based on how we’ve played so far? For me, it’s Russell Wilson (his numbers are among the league’s leaders), Justin Simmons and Alex Singleton (they’ve been everywhere on defense). What say you?
— Nick Winters, Colorado Springs
Good way to finish it off this week, Nick. Pro Bowl nods always tilt toward teams that win games, so let’s start by saying the number of Broncos who get picked will be higher if they keep winning the rest of the way.
Wilson’s certainly bounced back this year, but the AFC quarterback field is loaded. Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa and rookie C.J. Stroud are all having terrific seasons and there’s still time for Justin Herbert or Josh Allen to get hot, too. Not to say Wilson can’t or won’t make it, but it won’t be easy.
Pat Surtain II should be a lock even though his numbers may not jump off the page. Simmons is a good bet. Singleton means a lot to the Broncos defense, though at eighth in the AFC in total tackles (10th in solo) and with three tackles for loss and no sacks, will he generate widespread recognition? Again, how Denver plays down the stretch determines a lot of that. Six weeks ago you could not have convinced me that three players from this defense would be in consideration, so there’s a long way to go.
Here’s one other thought: This should be the year right guard Quinn Meinerz gets consideration. He’s playing like one of the best interior linemen in football.
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