Nathaniel Hackett bounced to the microphone that day in March, just weeks into his first head coaching job and newly armed with a nine-time Pro Bowl quarterback.
“Wow, c’mon, y’all, Russell Wilson,” he said with glee. “Holy (expletive), uh, very excited.”
That was less than 10 months ago, when Hackett, Wilson and general manager George Paton may well have thought the Denver Broncos’ next golden era was about to begin.
Instead, Wilson spent his Week 17 news conference this past week talking about Hackett’s firing, his own underwhelming play in his first year with the franchise, and what he thinks the next Broncos coach is getting into.
“This is a special job,” Wilson said Wednesday. “Special place, a special tradition, special players.”
Denver’s next head coach will almost certainly say mostly the same thing at an introductory news conference sometime early in 2023. Before that person arrives at that podium, however, the analysis of the potential and pitfalls of the position will be much more nuanced.
The Broncos find themselves at a crossroads. They have new ownership in place in the Walton-Penner Family Ownership Group. They have a struggling quarterback with a shining past, an uncertain future, and a huge contract. They have missed seven consecutive postseasons since hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in February 2016. They have a few terrific players and a core of solid players but also major holes.
All of that and more makes for a complex analysis for any coach who looks down at his buzzing phone and sees Broncos CEO Greg Penner calling as he leads the search for the 19th head coach in franchise history.
Just how attractive is the gig? Following is a look.
The quarterback
Perhaps the single biggest factor looming over the Broncos’ coaching vacancy is Wilson. He’s signed through 2028 and cutting him any time in the next two years would require Denver to stomach a historic amount of dead salary cap space. None of that would even be part of the conversation had Wilson not authored the worst season of his career in 2022.
More quickly than anybody anticipated, Wilson’s future became the stickiest wicket for the franchise to navigate. Management said Tuesday they think he has good playing days ahead of him and is “fixable.” But prospective coaches will be tasked with — and graded on — their plan to revive Wilson’s career.
“He’s lost a lot off his fastball this year,” NFL Network analyst Brian Baldinger said. “And if you’re a potential head coach, you’re going to ask about the quarterback and say, ‘OK, if we put him in this system and we do this and we do this and we build the offensive line, get (running back Javonte Williams) back,’ whatever it is. He still has to make plays to win games. Right now, if I was a potential head coach, I’d feel like Nathaniel Hackett never really got a chance to coach and the quarterback played really poor.
“It’s not all on Russell, obviously, with the injuries and all of that, but that could be the next head coach if the quarterback plays like this.”
If Wilson and a new coach mesh well and his play improves, the job gets much easier. If not, decision time will close in quickly for the organization.
“You see it in flashes, but you don’t see any of the consistency to any of it,” Baldinger said. “He’s missing throws, he doesn’t look like he’s an elite athlete anymore. We always put him in that category because he could get out of harm’s way and extend plays. He’s 34 years old and played five years of college. He’s not young. Everybody ages differently and you just don’t know when some of those superpowers are going to leave you.”
Paton said, “It’s not whether Russ is fixable or not, but we do believe he is. We do.”
Will top coaching candidates see it the same way?
Roster and cap space
Denver will enter 2023 with a relative lack of draft capital — San Francisco’s late-first round pick and no second-rounder — and some cap flexibility but not in the NFL’s upper range.
While Wilson’s contract is onerous in terms of what it would take to cut him, his cap number remains relatively friendly for 2023 at $22 million. But that rises to $35.4 million in 2024 and $55.4 million in 2025.
Denver has 17 unrestricted free agents set to hit the market before any extensions that could be agreed to in the coming days or weeks. Many of those are role players, but there are also key contributors such as defensive lineman Dre’Mont Jones and linebacker Alex Singleton plus starters like left guard Dalton Risner whom the Broncos will have to make decisions on.
Obvious needs are re-tooling the offensive line, finding edge depth, getting help at running back and perhaps receiver — that seem to outweigh their draft capital and cap flexibility.
It’s not all bad news, however. Denver does have several parts of its roster that appear to be in good hands now and well into the future.
“I can sell this roster. We’ve got a bunch of good, young players,” Paton said. “We have a long way to go, we have some good veteran players as well. I think we have a foundation in place where, if we get the right head coach and we make some sound moves on the personnel end, we can turn this thing around.”
Much of the optimism comes because of the defense, where the core includes cornerback Pat Surtain II, safety Justin Simmons, defensive lineman D.J. Jones and several other promising young players.
One other longer-term positive: Denver does have its full set of draft picks for 2024 and beyond. So if the 2023 season deteriorates, the Broncos could have premium picks with which to find their quarterback of the future.
A dud of a 2023 season would not be comfortable for a new coach, however, which leads us to….
Franchise instability
The next Broncos head coach will be the fifth since 2016, when Gary Kubiak stepped away. Two years of Vance Joseph, three of Vic Fangio and then one of Hackett.
Of course, the new ownership group wasn’t here for any of those hires. So, what will their approach be?
“The interview process is two ways,” Baldinger said. “It’s not just the organization with the potential coach. It’s got to be the other way around, too, and it’s got to be a good fit all the way around. We’ve seen way too many guys that are one-and-done and somebody has the ultimate power. You understand now that the new coach is going to report to the owner and not the general manager, so that’s a little change from the way it’s been. You’ve got to understand their structure and what their priorities are. You interview them as much as they interview you.”
Penner gave a bit of insight to his expectations Tuesday.
“I’m a big believer that if you start with the right culture, people and you have the resources and expectations, we can build a winning football team here again,” he said. “And I don’t think that takes a number of years. Our focus should be on turning this around so that we’re ready to go this coming season with the right pieces in place.”
There are going to be immediate expectations. The next coach may do well to temper them a bit more publicly than Hackett did, but that won’t change the evaluation process from Penner.
“Our fans have been patient,” Penner said. “We have the best fans in the world, but we need to put a better product on the field.”
Huge resources
Here’s an area that should be a big plus for the Broncos.
Money alone is only a barrier to the extent that the new ownership group decides it is.
Controlling owner Rob Walton’s estimated net worth is approximately three times the next closest competitor in the NFL (Carolina’s David Tepper). Denver now can outbid other teams, pro or college, for any coach they want except maybe for Sean Payton, who will cost both top dollar and also draft capital (perhaps multiple premium picks) paid to the Saints.
If they want to pay a big buyout to land a college coach or put enough money in front of Michigan’s Jim Harbaugh to try to convince him to leave a great situation, they can do that.
Resources, though, also go beyond how much a head coach makes, and that’s an area Paton and Penner stressed as a potential differentiator for Denver.
“We have a lot to offer here and it starts with ownership and the resources they’re going to put into bringing us back a championship,” Paton said. “They’re going to give us anything we need.”
Penner promised a top-to-bottom look at the football operation this offseason. Throwing money at problems is not always a great approach, but Denver is now in a position as an organization to make whatever changes, adjustments or implementations it sees fit to put coaches and players in a position to succeed.
“The new head coach will definitely be involved in that, but I tend to be impatient and that’s happening now,” Penner said of the across-the-board evaluation.
Job market
In a pool as small as this one — there are only 32 NFL head coaches, after all — any opening is always going to hold appeal.
How a job looks can also be relative to other opportunities, and that could play a factor in Denver’s search.
So far, Denver, Carolina and Indianapolis have fired their coaches. More firings will come after the season. The landscape is constantly shifting.
Perhaps the Panthers will win their next two games, take the NFC South and make interim Steve Wilks their full-time guy. Perhaps the Los Angeles Chargers making the playoffs cooled Brandon Staley’s seat. The Cowboys have been among the NFL’s best teams this year. What if they lose in the opening round of the playoffs and Payton pushes for Mike McCarthy’s job? What if Sean McVay actually retires as the Los Angeles Rams head coach at the ripe old age of 36?
An opening like Dallas or alongside a quarterback like the Chargers’ Justin Herbert would be among the NFL’s most attractive. Every team has different pluses and minuses. Houston will likely have the No. 1 pick. Arizona has Kyler Murray signed to a massive extension, making that job potentially less attractive if it opens up.
A coach may look at Denver’s defense and the new ownership group and say to himself that if the Broncos can win a Super Bowl with Peyton Manning throwing nine touchdowns and 17 interceptions in his age-39 season, it can be done with Wilson playing even just a shade better than he did this year. A coach may also look at Wilson’s tape this year and the gymnastics it would take to get out from his contract and decide there’s no path to contention in the next two years.
“The attraction part (in Denver) is the defense, outside of last week, has played really well all year,” Baldinger said. “You can count on those guys. … Simmons and Surtain, these are really, really good players. The linebackers are really good. There’s a lot of attraction to that side of the ball right now.
“OK, what are we going to do offensively to help out?”
