Any good wide receiver always thinks he’s open.
There’s a telltale sign when he knows it.
He throws his hand up and waves, a signal to the quarterback: Throw it here. I’m gone.
Jerry Jeudy threw his hands up repeatedly last week at Houston.
He was open, too. But the gesturing came after plays rather than during them.
With all the subtlety of a neon sign, it showed his frustration rather than his lightning ability to separate from defensive backs.
A single play rarely makes the difference in an NFL game, but any of three times Jeudy found himself all alone over the final three quarters could have changed the complexion of a 22-17 loss that came up eight yards short for the Broncos.
It’s mostly been that kind of season for Jeudy.
His numbers are down. His frustration’s shown up multiple times, probably more frequently than he’s made game-changing plays.
At the same time, this is right about the spot on the calendar when he went on a tear last year.
So are the near misses in Texas just the latest in a run of them during an underwhelming season for the 2020 first-round pick? Or are they a signal of just how close Jeudy and the Broncos’ passing game are to breaking out?
The answer to that question has implications not only for Denver’s playoff hopes but also for the front office’s decision-making this offseason when it comes to one of the NFL’s most expensive pass-catching groups.
A closing kick
Jeudy’s numbers over the Broncos’ first 12 games last year and this year look similar in their undulations.
In 2022, Jeudy missed nearly three games due to an ankle injury. Taking out the one snap he played Week 10, he averaged 3.8 catches (on 6.6 targets) and 57.1 yards per game up to that point.
He missed the opener this year due to a training camp hamstring injury. In 11 games, he’s averaged 3.6 catches (5.2 targets) and 44.6 yards per game.
Jeudy, of course, took off down the stretch last year. He racked up 33 catches and 458 yards over the Broncos’ final five games, humming along at 11.2 yards per target, logging games of 117 and 154 yards and catching three touchdowns against Kansas City.
He looked like a true No. 1 receiver.
Critically, he convinced Broncos general manager George Paton and eventual head coach Sean Payton to pick up the fifth-year option on his rookie contract, guaranteeing him a $12.987 million salary in 2024.
“Really happy with how Jerry finished off the season, especially the last couple of games,” Paton said at the NFL Scouting Combine in late February.
The Broncos, certainly, would take a similar finish to 2023 for Jeudy.
They face a run of teams that, like Houston, have struggled to defend the passing game. And while Payton and the offense can’t get too far away from what won them five straight games — clock control and a strong running game — there should be opportunities for Jeudy and others down the stretch.
“I’ve got all the confidence in the world in him,” quarterback Russell Wilson said of Jeudy. “We’ve got five games to go and that’s what we’re focused on as a team. He’s going to help us win. … He’s a winner. He’s a guy who’s competitive, he’s got unbelievable ability. I’ve got all the trust in the world in him.
“I’m excited for the next five games not just for him but for our football team and what we can do.”
Modest results
It’s instead been Sutton who’s ascended in an offense that isn’t producing top-end passing or receiving numbers for anybody.
Since Week 5, Wilson’s thrown for 200-plus yards only once (259 vs. Minnesota) and is averaging 171.4 per game.
The production Denver does generate in the passing game, though, has tilted toward Sutton, the sixth-year man out of SMU. He’s on pace for a shade over 900 yards, which would be the second-most of his career. He’s already got a career-best nine touchdown catches. It’s not impossible he could get to 14, which would match his previous career output.
“He comes out here and he practices as hard as anybody on this field,” wide receivers coach Keary Colbert told The Denver Post. “That’s one thing that stands out and you see why he’s getting the results. He’s busting his tail. He has a great attitude, great mindset, and sometimes you kind of get in a groove.
“I just think he gets going a little bit and he’s making his plays and the ball’s finding him.”
Even still, none of the Broncos’ pass-catchers are on pace to hit Jeudy’s mark last year of 972 yards. That’s in keeping with the way Denver’s receivers have finished in recent years. In fact, Sutton’s 1,112 yards in 2019 is the franchise’s most recent 1,000-yard receiving season and the only one since Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders exceeded the mark in 2017.
This year’s group understands that Denver’s recipe in wins this year hasn’t typically included big passing production.
“We’re all of the same mindset: that whatever we need to do to win the game, that’s what we’re going to do,” second-year receiver Brandon Johnson said. “The ebbs and flows of the games, it works in different ways every time. But ultimately we’re just focused on winning. If that means we’re not going to have as many passing yards or things of that nature, if we’re going to win, we’ll all take that.”
Frustrating run
Colbert played in the league for years. He knows the ups and downs of the position.
He knows, like it or not, that a receiver can only control part of the equation that determines whether or not the ball is thrown his way.
And he’s repeated a mantra to his group of pupils in recent weeks.
“You’ve just got to have faith and confidence that the ball will find you,” Colbert said, noting that there’s much more to a receiver’s job than just catching the ball. “At the end of the day, that’s the crazy thing about this sport. There’s one ball and it’s 11 guys. There’s a lot of things that have to happen on the play, and even when things happen, sometimes the ball goes other places.
“We talked about this during the (Houston) game: It’s a 60-, 65-, 70-play game. So just continue to play and we’ll add it up and the end and see where it stands at the end. It’s one play at a time.
“Every play has a life of its own and we just get on to the next one.”
Jeudy had several plays Sunday where the ball could have found him and did not.
• On fourth-and-1 in the second quarter, he ran a crossing route and broke free wide open down the field. Wilson had time in the pocket but explained Wednesday that he felt the clock ticking in his head before he took off to run, converting a first down. But the Broncos, trailing 13-0 at the time, settled for three points instead of a potential touchdown to Jeudy.
• On second-and-8 midway through the third quarter, the Broncos got a look they’d been waiting for specifically to take a shot to Jeudy down the field. A Texans safety rotated down into the box on the snap and Jeudy blew past a bailing cornerback to the post. He had nothing but green grass in front of him. Right guard Quinn Meinerz, though, was beat cleanly in pass protection, and Wilson felt the need to dump the ball off to Javonte Williams for a 5-yard gain. Wilson perhaps could have gotten the throw off had he launched it right at the top of his drop, but the pressure undoubtedly affected his timing.
That play, Wilson said, “we really wanted.”
• On second-and-goal in the closing moments, Jeudy did some of his best work. Known as an upper-echelon route runner, Jeudy motioned across the formation to Wilson’s left and ran a diabolical pivot route against Desmond King. He worked King so thoroughly that King leaned toward the sideline as Jeudy jetted to the middle with no defender anywhere between the hashes for what would have been a walk-in, game-winning touchdown. Except Wilson’s primary reads were to the right: Sutton and tight end Adam Trautman. Neither was open, the pocket started to collapse and Wilson knew Denver had no timeouts remaining, so he threw the ball out of the back of the end zone instead of trying to work to Jeudy on the back side of the progression. A game-sealing interception came on the next play.
“It definitely be challenging,” Jeudy said of channeling the frustration that comes with missed chances. “But you’ve got to know that there’s a lot more game left to be played. You’ve got to finish the game strong and not focus on the last play, and hopefully the next play, the next drive, you get your opportunity.”
Future outlook
There’s no denying Jeudy’s abilities.
The fluidity in his hips makes him one of the NFL’s most dangerous receivers against man coverage. He can twist a defensive back into a pretzel at any moment and make it look like a stroll through Washington Park.
“If you ask him or if you talk to him about it, it’s like tying a shoe to him,” Colbert said. “It’s fun to watch.”
He’s unique in a position group consisting of all shapes, sizes and skill sets.
“The way he understands DBs and leverage and change-of-pace, speed and angles, you name it, man, he’s like a magician out there,” Johnson said.
However, Jeudy’s also never put together the full package for more than a few weeks at a time since the Broncos took him No. 15 overall in the 2020 draft.
Even still, his salary next year is more than manageable. The total money currently earmarked for the receiver group, however, may not be.
And that’s where the final five weeks could impact Denver’s decision-making.
The trade inquiries regarding Jeudy and Sutton will return this winter. The Broncos need draft picks, or at least Paton undoubtedly would like to find more. Not only that, but at present Denver has $49.7 million of 2024 cap space dedicated to the position.
The possibilities are numerous and there will be plenty of time to work through all the options. It’s worth pointing out that cap numbers can be massaged relatively easily, but also that decisions are coming because Sutton and Tim Patrick have no guaranteed money remaining after this year.
A few things at this point are clear that wouldn’t have been known at the outset of training camp.
• Rookie Marvin Mims Jr. has real big-play ability that the Broncos will want to build around in the future.
• Whereas Jeudy clearly looked like the top dog going into August, Sutton’s resurgent season makes him a candidate to be the veteran Denver decides to keep and potentially offer a contract extension or restructure this offseason.
• Patrick missed a second straight year due to injury (an Achilles tear) but has been running hard and cutting during side-field conditioning work in recent weeks. He’ll be a wild card who currently has a cap number north of $16 million for 2024 but could restructure, accept a pay cut and a prove-it deal or find himself released for salary cap room.
Much is still to be decided. If anybody is going to move the needle over the final month, it’s likely Jeudy. He doesn’t need to convince the Broncos he’s worthy of a mega-extension in the next five games since he’s under contract for next year. But his up-and-down stretches and the comparison of his superb talent to his so-so production could weigh out differently in the minds of the Broncos’ decision-makers with another year of data compiled and another draft quiver light on arrows next spring.
Except this year’s data isn’t fully compiled yet, and that makes Jeudy’s role and play a fascinating subplot to a closing run that is already interesting enough.
He undoubtedly hopes the ball starts finding him more. That he’s throwing his hand up in anticipation or in celebration rather than out of bewilderment.
Jeudy’s adamant, though, that there are more important things at stake.
“I feel like every game is a must-win game, especially these last five, to be able to get into the playoffs and finish as winners,” he said. “I feel like these are very important games and it’s very important to finish strong and win these last five games.”
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Broncos WR production 2022-23
| 2023 | 2022 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Among Den. WRs | Jerry Jeudy | Courtland Sutton | Jeudy | Sutton |
| Target share | 32.0% | 42.1% | 33.7% | 36.7% |
| Catch share | 33.1% | 41.3% | 37.2% | 35.6% |
| Yards share | 30.6% | 39.8% | 38.9% | 33.2% |
| First down share | 30.9% | 44.1% | 39.4% | 36.5% |
Broncos WR 2024 salary cap picture
| Name | Contract Thru | 2024 cap (millions) | Guaranteed (millions) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Patrick | 2024 | $16.07 | $0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 2024 | $12.99 | $12.99 |
| Brandon Johnson | 2024 | $0.99 | $0 |
| Courtland Sutton | 2025 | $17.33 | $0 |
| Marvin Mims, Jr. | 2026 | $1.38 | $1.03 |
* OverTheCap data
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